Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 3.763400 4.131638 4.565556 5.128958 5.865819 6.839525 8.316497
2024-12-15 3.285448 3.729773 4.297293 5.117493 6.366979 8.439302 13.128670
2024-12-22 2.958017 3.414919 4.023477 4.957778 6.525603 9.618722 20.648414
2024-12-29 2.819419 3.311679 3.997032 5.123187 7.254091 12.722264 148.014847
2025-01-05 2.616911 3.093427 3.767971 4.906281 7.172776 13.824015 NaN
2025-01-12 2.448178 2.905235 3.558889 4.680572 6.989587 14.460998 NaN
2025-01-19 2.333295 2.782911 3.434588 4.578118 7.042956 16.324970 NaN
2025-01-26 2.291477 2.760204 3.457877 4.739415 7.794855 25.625145 NaN
2025-02-02 2.275044 2.771740 3.534405 5.016248 9.072749 106.291087 NaN
2025-02-09 2.216369 2.715309 3.493345 5.049560 9.659688 NaN NaN
2025-02-16 2.168019 2.670900 3.467428 5.109419 10.425119 NaN NaN
2025-02-23 2.083309 2.566085 3.330384 4.904392 9.984700 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 2.034592 2.517272 3.291123 4.925113 10.634261 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 1.982902 2.461298 3.235417 4.900841 11.101501 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 1.918487 2.382318 3.133746 4.754221 10.838403 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 1.899571 2.373549 3.155298 4.905113 12.464713 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 1.836936 2.292663 3.041831 4.707071 11.704449 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 1.776178 2.213063 2.927736 4.500071 10.850674 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 1.733419 2.160827 2.860969 4.405799 10.714332 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 1.724533 2.161929 2.890270 4.554127 12.385630 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 1.727129 2.181353 2.954421 4.807581 15.854208 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 1.704170 2.158140 2.936954 4.837984 17.427463 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 1.684898 2.140180 2.928307 4.892565 19.805222 NaN NaN